Model Comparison for Temperature-Based Weather Derivatives in Mainland China

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a comparison of two models of temperature-based weather derivatives. The Alaton et al. model (2002) and the continuous-time autoregressive (CAR) model of Benth et al. (2007) are applied to temperature data from twelve cities in China. The objective is to determine which is the better model for temperature derivative modeling in Chinese cities. We found the CAR model to be more accurate in terms of normality of residuals and smaller relative errors. However, the shortcomings of both the Alaton et al. model and the CAR model are revealed in this study as well.     

大空间飞机修理厂房分层空调的可行性分析

本文以某大空间飞机修理厂房为研究对象,采用Airpak软件对其原始分层空调设计方案气流组织进行模拟,并对方案可行性进行评价。     

Is socially responsible investment useful in Mexico? A multi-factor and ex-ante review

The present paper continues the firsts reviews made to socially responsible investment in Mexico. We extended these reviews by using a non-parametric multivariate equality test, along with a multi-factor market cap model, and a Monte Carlo simulation. Our results show that the IPCS index, the IPCcomp and the IPC have a statistically equal mean-variance performance, suggesting that this sort of investment style (SRI) is a good substitute of the broad market investment style in the long term. Among the causes of this finding is the fact that the IPCS and the IPCcomp indexes have almost the same large and small cap stock concentration and the IPC index (a large-cap one) is not as diversified and mean-variance efficient as the former.     

On an efficient multiple time step Monte Carlo simulation of the SABR model

In this paper, we will present a multiple time step Monte Carlo simulation technique for pricing options under the Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho model. The proposed method is an extension of the one time step Monte Carlo method that we proposed in an accompanying paper Leitao et al. [Appl. Math. Comput. 2017, 293, 461–479], for pricing European options in the context of the model calibration. A highly efficient method results, with many very interesting and nontrivial components, like Fourier inversion for the sum of log-normals, stochastic collocation, Gumbel copula, correlation approximation, that are not yet seen in combination within a Monte Carlo simulation. The present multiple time step Monte Carlo method is especially useful for long-term options and for exotic options.     

Capital and resolution policies: The US interbank market

We develop an empirically based simulation study to test two types of policies designed to control systemic risk: preventive policies targeting capital requirements and mitigation policies targeting default resolution. We find that capital buffers reduce both the number of defaults and the resulting losses. The loss reduction benefit increases as the magnitude of adverse shocks becomes higher. We find that a simple branch-breakup resolution strategy reduces the loss borne by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The mitigation effect becomes higher as the fraction of assets resolved through auctions and auction competitiveness increase.     

环境质量变化对游客福利的影响——基于旅行费用和条件行为联合数据

环境质量是影响游客旅游需求及福利的重要因素,但单一使用陈述性偏好法或揭示性偏好法仍存在诸多局限性。为探究环境质量改变对游客需求及福利变化的具体影响,结合旅行费用与条件行为数据,在明确现有环境质量状况下景区价值基础上,评估环境质量改善与恶化两种情景下,游客消费者剩余的变化。结果表明,环境质量改变直接影响旅行次数,从而增加或减少消费者剩余,但不会通过影响游客旅行费用间接改变消费者剩余,实际行为与条件行为数据偏好存在一致性;白洋淀景区当前消费者剩余为909.09元/次;环境质量改善使游客平均旅行次数增加1.45次/年,并使每位游客每年的消费者剩余增加1 318.18元;环境质量恶化使游客平均旅行次数降低1.41次/年,并使每位游客每年的消费者剩余减少1 281.81元。     

失信联合惩戒的正当性及其立法限度

失信联合惩戒基于其强大的威慑力,成为当前社会信用立法中的关键制度设计。目前如火如荼的社会信用立法及实践中失信联合惩戒的范围有不断扩容的趋势。通过探讨失信联合惩戒正当性基础并厘清其所涉及的公权与私权、惩戒与激励、市场与政府三重关系,间接勾勒失信联合惩戒的范围和框架。在此基础上,有必要明确失信联合惩戒在信用立法中的定位,审慎设置联合惩戒措施,触发机制方面亦需进行关联性、确定性、谦抑性的限制,以实现在寻求最大共识基础上的引领性、基础性法律制度构建的目标,逐步推动信用治理法治化,培植整个社会的信用秩序。     

The architecture of R&D joint projects: the social network analysis approach

This paper examines the effect of network properties on the performance R&D joint projects. In particular, we examine the impact of network cohesion, diversity and shape on the performance of these of exploration and exploitation R&D projects. We test these measures using data on projects from European R&D networks developed under the framework of Eureka projects. The empirical results indicated some network properties enhance the project’s performance and these differ depending on the kind of technological project developed. Our results suggest a lower heterogeneity, greater cohesion and network centralisation in exploitation than in exploration projects. Our findings show different types of structures depending on the aim of the joint project and that there exist different degrees of cohesion between the partners that comprise the core and the peripheral nodes.     

基于Fluent的波节管内流体流动与传热特性研究

为了深入研究影响波节管传热效果的主要因素,应用CFD软件Fluent对波节管内流体的流动和传热特性进行数值模拟,分别研究了不同入口流速v(0.3,0.5,0.7和0.9 m/s)、波峰直径D_1(28,30,32,34和36 mm)、弧形段长S_1(34,23,17,13和10 mm)下波节管内流体的流动与传热特性。结果表明,不同型号波节管的努塞尔数(Nu)、流体压力损失以及综合性能随着入口流速的增加而增加;随着波峰直径D_1(弧形段长S_1)的增大,波节管的Nu先增大后减小,最后趋于一个相对稳定的值。当波节管的波峰直径D_1=34 mm时,波节管的传热性能最好,流体压力损失最大,综合性能最好;弧形段长S_1=23 mm时,波节管的换热性能最佳,流体压力损失最大,综合性能最好。通过参数正交分析可知,影响波节管传热效果的因素由强到弱依次为入口流速v、波峰直径D_1、弧形段长S_1。研究成果可为工程实际中提高波节管传热性能提供理论指导。     

上部覆盖层下伏页岩一类潜在滑坡演化变形机制分析

为研究上部覆盖层下伏页岩这一类型的滑坡失稳变形,需要确定其变形的潜在影响因素,从定量角度上分析这一类型滑坡灾害的变形演化问题。以容县六王镇西流河潜在滑坡为研究对象,借助钻孔勘探、室内试验和地质调绘,详细分析了西流河滑坡的工程地质概况,并推测其可能的变形演化机制,然后利用Geostudio数值软件建立西流河滑坡的渗流模型,模拟其在不同降雨工况下的渗流规律。研究发现:西流河滑坡在持续降雨过程中稳定性系数从1.224逐步降低至1.09,稳定性系数不断下降,滑坡体内由垂直入渗逐步转化沿滑动带稳定渗流;当遭遇极端暴雨情况(50年重现期)时,滑坡体内稳定渗流场显著增厚,饱和滑带土增多,滑坡安全储备达到极限。由此可以得出:上部覆盖层下伏页岩一类滑坡变形演化过程主要分滑坡体上部覆盖层堆积阶段,垂直入渗至页岩富水软化阶段和稳定渗流至潜在滑动带软化蠕变这3个阶段;其中上部覆盖层的高渗透性和下伏页岩的隔水特征是导致页岩风化带软化蠕变和稳定渗流场形成的关键因素。研究结果为上部覆盖层下伏页岩这一类滑坡影响因素的研究提供了一些证据,对研究滑坡演化变形机制具有借鉴意义。